By now, the general public at large is fairly familiar with the idea of the impending ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030 onwards. It’s proven a bit controversial in some quarters, but so far the government has stuck to its guns. And not long after the 2030 target was finalised, ministers then announced that the sale of new diesel HGVs was due to be banned by 2040.

The reaction has fallen largely along the lines you’d expect – while the move has been welcomed by climate campaigners, it’s caused widespread dismay amongst the logistics industry. The prevailing opinion is that the timespan is not long enough for the industry to adapt. And as the logistics industry is a sector we’re very closely linked to here at TankSafe, as you’d imagine it’s a story we’ve been following very closely!

So will it still proceed as planned? That’s the question that’s on everyone’s minds right now. So here’s a detailed round-up of the situation as it stands, and all the crucial elements you need to know.

The background

In recent years the UK has been under major pressure to decarbonise its transport sector, which accounts for 27% of Britain’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Right now, the government’s ultimate aim is to become entirely carbon neutral by 2050.

As part of that overarching strategy, in 2020 plans were finalised to ban the sale of all petrol and diesel vehicles, from small passenger cars to large HGVs. At the time of writing, the plans are due to be enacted in several phases across a ten-year timespan:

· 2030 – New petrol and diesel cars to be banned

· 2035 – New hybrid vehicles to be banned

· 2035 – New petrol or diesel powered HGVs weighing up to 26 tonnes to be banned

· 2040 – Heavier new petrol or diesel HGVs banned

Now obviously that means there’s quite a lot to discuss, but for the purposes of this post we’ll keep our focus on HGVs as much as possible (although obviously there’s going to be some overlap with the main ban on petrol and diesel passenger cars, which is going to affect the greatest number of people).

One of the first things that it’s important to clarify is that when the ban comes into effect, it will only affect new vehicles. In other words, you won’t be able to buy a petrol or diesel powered vehicle from manufacturers or dealers from that date onwards. It doesn’t mean that it will become illegal to drive or operate the petrol or diesel vehicles you may already own – so you won’t have to worry about being forced to scrap your personal car by 2030, or your entire business fleet by 2040! It’s just the first (significant) step in a long-term strategy to phase out these vehicles from UK roads.

It's a strategy that’s already undergone several iterations. The first announcement of a ban on petrol and diesel cars came in 2017. At that stage, the original plan was for it to come into effect in 2040. However, following input from scientists and climate campaigners, it was then finalised a few years later in 2020, with a new deadline for 2030.

The following ban on new diesel HGVs was finalised in 2021, which gives the transport sector less than a decade to hit the initial 2030 target for passenger cars, and less than 20 years to adapt to the HGV diesel ban. And it’s worth noting, in this context, the warning from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, which pointed out that the electric lorry market is “two decades behind that of passenger cars.”

Just one reason why, to put it bluntly, the industry at large is not confident that a 2040 ban is realistic.

What are the obstacles to the HGV diesel ban?

There are a variety of reasons why industry commentators think the ban probably isn’t workable in the long run, at least not in its current form. The biggest reasons are currently posing major challenges for the rollout of the 2030 petrol and diesel car ban, and by extension they apply to the 2040 diesel HGV ban too.

Infrastructure

By far the most pressing issue is the lack of necessary infrastructure. While a number of alternative fuels to petrol and diesel are currently in development, right now electric vehicles are the only real viable alternative on a national scale. And while they emit zero emissions in operation, range is a key issue – most electric vehicles need relatively frequent recharging to travel the same distances that most internal combustion engines can do in one go. That’s obviously irritating for private drivers, and right from the get-go it makes it almost unworkable for the logistics industry, which generally works to very tight deadlines.

The government has already announced that it will invest £56 million in a new wave of public chargers, which is projected to fund around 2400 charging points. Unfortunately though, that falls far short of what’s needed.

Industry analysts have estimated that the UK needs at least 300,000 public chargers to sufficiently cope with the national demand by 2030. But by the end of January 2023, there were just under 40,000 at just 22,000 sites. That’s less than 15% of what’s required – so the UK needs to increase its capacity sixfold in the next seven years just to reach what experts predict is the bare minimum. In the past year, we’ve achieved an increase of just 31%, so while there is tangible progress, it’s easy to see why so many in the industry are sceptical.

As we’ve touched on above, there are a few other alternative fuels being developed, but basically no others seriously in the running. The potential of hydrogen is promising, but as of March 2023, there are just 15 hydrogen refuelling stations in the entire country. If you’re not counting on your fingers, you’ll note that still puts us at less than 299,985 fewer than we’ll ultimately need.

Financial pressure on businesses

Senior figures in the transport sector have also pointed out that the impending ban adds another significant burden on UK businesses, which have already been under pressure from a series of global events in recent years. The Covid-19 pandemic and consequent lockdowns is one of the most prominent examples, and the subsequent supply chain issues, global economic downturn, and a variety of related factors.

All of them have made logistics businesses vulnerable to some degree, and the impacts from several look set to continue into the long term, so that the affected businesses may take a while to properly recover to the pre-pandemic standard of their operations – much less attain the new growth or profitability necessary to make large-scale changes to their fleets.

It's worth briefly revisiting that warning from the SMMT – the electric lorry market is currently two decades behind passenger cars, which means that the technology itself is still relatively expensive as things stand. While it’s set to get more affordable as it becomes more widely available, that still puts additional pressure on UK businesses in at least two ways. Firstly, they must rapidly close existing gaps in their finances, which is itself no mean achievement. Secondly, they raise then enough additional revenue to meet the significant costs of new technologies that may not be properly viable for some time after 2040 anyway.

Ultimately, the cost of running cleaner HGVs might be lower, but the up-front costs and the total cost of ownership may end up being a barrier to entry.

How likely is it that the ban will be delayed?

To be honest, it depends on who you ask.

Some observers think that it’s too late to delay the date again. Speaking about the 2030 petrol and diesel ban, What Car? editorial director Jim Holder said that: “I don’t believe 2030 will be delayed. While it was decided on a political whim, it’s now had cross-party support for years, and other blocs and nations have followed suit. There’s too much political equity in the green agenda for any major party to be seen as standing against it.’

However, as we’ve covered, the industry is pretty sure that it’s not workable. All of Europe’s major truck manufacturers have agreed to make new HGVs fossil fuel-free by 2040, but unless the UK’s charging structure can keep pace with the sales of these vehicles, the government will likely be left with no other option than to announce a delay.

Speaking of which, there’s a large swathe of opinion that the government isn’t currently giving enough levels of support to the sector. For example, there was nothing about charging infrastructure mentioned in the recent Spring Budget. Most logistics companies can’t move forward with any practical plans to decarbonise their fleets without a reassuring level of charging points throughout the UK, and in April 2023, new research from the SMMT showed that there is not a single dedicated charging or hydrogen refuelling site for HGVs anywhere in the UK.

When the government first announced the 2040 deadline a few years ago, the SMMT reacted by urging the government to support research into zero-emissions vehicles before they become mandatory. And to be fair, ministers did respond by announcing a £20 million investment into zero-emission HGV research. One of the options floated early on involved “pantograph” charging, in which electric HGVs could charge by connecting to wires above the road – a system widely employed on Britain’s rail systems.

In the last few weeks, the SMMT has reiterated those calls for more research and investment, and for ministers to devise and commit to a practical strategy that supports HGVs operators as they make the challenging switch from diesel.

SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said: “With just over a decade until the UK begins to phase out new diesel trucks, we cannot afford to delay a strategy that will deliver the world’s first decarbonised HGV sector.”

What has the government said?

As per the Department of Transport, the government’s said: “We are committed to decarbonising our freight sector while supporting jobs and economic growth.

“We are working closely with industry to support the rollout of zero emission HGVs on our roads, and we will be investing in projects to support that following our successful £20 million pilot.”

However, there’s been a noticeable change in conjecture on the latest figures from the European Commission, which recently published its proposals for future CO2 emissions by:

· 45% from 1 January 2030

· 65% from 1 January 2035

· 90% from 1 January 2040 onwards

That last figure is particularly significant. Tellingly, it notes that the Commission is now aiming for a 90% reduction in emissions from 1 January 2040 onwards, rather than entirely dropping emissions to zero – which suggests that lawmakers, too, may be quietly reassessing their plans. So it’s not outside the realms of possibility that we could see sweeping changes to the legislation stands in the UK – it just remains to be seen exactly when.

Diesel isn’t going anywhere for now

While we like to keep ourselves informed here at TankSafe, ultimately we’re not privy to policymaker discussions held behind closed doors. So until the government’s next announcement, all we can do is wait and see how ministers react.

But you certainly can be sure of one thing – for better or worse, diesel isn’t going anywhere any time soon. That means thankfully, you shouldn’t have to worry about any disruptive short-term changes to your fleet. However, since diesel will remain a mainstay of the industry for the time being, it’s worth taking proactive steps to protect yours – and that’s where we can help here at TankSafe.

Our mission is to help defend your business from the financial and logistical impacts of fuel theft, and we’ve developed a range of products with that aim in mind. The most popular is our TankSafe Optimum, which stops 100% of fuel theft thanks to its innovative, patented design. It’s the only security device that can offer you 3-in-1 protection from fuel spills, overfilling, and theft, and it’s protected by 45 patents that cover 49 territories worldwide. You will not find a more efficient device anywhere else in the world.

If you have any questions regarding any of our products, or you simply need some advice, feel free to head over to our FAQs page, where we answer some of the most commonly asked questions regarding our products and services. Alternatively, you can give us a call on 01253 400 401, and we’ll be happy to help however we can!

Is the 2040 HGV diesel ban still a realistic target?